Friday, January 27, 2006

Neutralizing Hamas Indirectly

The Israel-Palestine conflict became more aggravated by the recent Hamas win over the Fatah party. Both Israel and Hamas leaders swear that they will continue along party lines with Israel's refusing to deal with a terroristic based organization such as Hamas and Hamas continuing to take the stance that they are sworn enemies of Israel.

So much for political posturing. But when it comes to being practical both Israel and Hamas at this point need each other. Somewhere between 40 and 50 million dollars monthly was transferred from Israel to Palestine in trade revenue while the Fatah was in control and the flow of cheap Palestine laborers into Israel was encouraged. Some of this money actually did reach the people, but much of it was lost to mismanagement and corruption. Economically, this flow of laborers into Israel and revenue to Palestine must continue for the economic stability of both countries. Israel has threatened to withhold these monthly payments and bar the laborers, if Hamas does not renounce their pledge of terrorism against them.

Hamas gained success in the recent elections by meeting some of the economic and social issues of the people that the Fatah based government couldn't due to it's corruption. But the financial backing of Hamas came from Islamic extreme states such as Iran, whose agenda was to further the cause of Islam through government control. Hamas may have little luxury of financial backing from Iran in the near future with Iran's radical leader first declaring that Israel should be "wiped off the face of the world" and then deciding to ignore the wrath of the superpowers of the world by trying to launch it's own nuclear agenda. This money stream to Hamas may be cut off quickly should containment of Iran's nuclear ambitions escalate into a UN based military action against Iran.

Hamas leaders are saying that they will not do anything to endanger what little economic stability that Palestine has, but much of their daily needs and their electricity is provided by Israel, who could cut them off quickly if provoked. Will this happen? Probably not, regardless of the posturing by both countries. Israel has grown economically from the cheap labor and by trade with Palestine. Palestine has grown economically dependent upon Israel for the very same reasons. Both countries would suffer if this co-dependency was halted.

The bigger threat to Israel is Iran. By eliminating the government and stability of Iran the financial support of Palestine will be stopped and the Hamas controlled Palestinian government will then be forced by economic need to concede to demands made not only by Israel, but also the UN, to denounce terrorism. Look for Israel to resolve it's problems with Palestine indirectly. Eliminating Iran's influence and financial support will neutralize Hamas.

posted by Is It Just Me? at 3:08 PM